Paramount Animation and Hasbro Entertainment‘s Transformers One, the first animated Transformers movie in close to 40 years, looks to liven up the mid-September box office with a domestic start in the low-$30Ms with potential for upside.
Transformers One will keep the domestic box office at its excellent clip. Through the last weekend of April, the domestic B.O. stood at $2.07 billion, 20% behind 2023. Since then, through last weekend, the domestic box office has made an additional $4 billion for a running YTD cume of $6.08 billion, now 12% behind last year.
Advance ticket sales are solid from Thursday through Saturday, ahead of last year’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem ($28M 3-day) and Trolls Band Together ($30M).
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Josh Cooley directed what has been described for months as one of Paramount’s highest-testing animated movies. The $75M production tells the origin story of Optimus Prime and Megatron, who were buddies before becoming sworn enemies. That relationship will impact the fate of Cybertron forever.
The starry voice cast includes Chris Hemsworth, Brian Tyree Henry, Scarlett Johansson, Keegan-Michael Key, Steve Buscemi with Laurence Fishburne and Jon Hamm. Producers are Lorenzo di Bonaventura, Tom DeSanto, Don Murphy, Michael Bay, Mark Vahradian and Aaron Dem.
There are fan previews on Wednesday night at 7 p.m. in PLF and Imax followed by Thursday previews starting at 5 p.m. Transformers One will be in play at 3,900 sites. Given the fanboy sensibility of the pic, Transformers One is skewing toward dads and sons. Rotten Tomatoes reviews stand at 89% certified fresh.
For benchmark purposes, the highest opening for an animated movie in September belongs to Sony’s 2015 Hotel Transylvania 2, which debuted to $48.4M.
There are two other wide releases in the mix: Lionsgate‘s Halle Berry starring, Alexandre Aja directed genre movie, Never Let Go, which is expected to open in the $4M-$7M range at 2,600 locations. Unaided interest is strongest among women over 25. Hopefully reviews can help it go higher, now at 69% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. The A Quiet Place-like movie, which cost $20M before P&A, follows a family who has been haunted by an evil spirit for years. Their safety and their surroundings come into question when one of the children questions if the evil is real. The R-rated movie starts previews at 6PM on Thursday. Last weekend, Lionsgate had Dave Bautista’s lowest wide-opening of his career, The Killer’s Game which opened to $2.69M. Pre-Covid, Aja had the 2019 alligator hurricane genre movie, Crawl, which opened to $12M, made $39M stateside and $91.5M global off a $14M production cost.
MUBI is making their first big wide splash into theatrical with their Cannes pick-up, The Substance, a body swap horror film that doubles as an homage to Demi Moore. The Ghost actress stars alongside Margaret Qualley who plays the double, younger version of Moore’s character in the film. The Substance follows a guru TV fitness instructor (Moore) who loses her job because of her older age. She partakes in a medical experiment called The Substance which spawns the younger version of herself who takes over the fitness show and becomes a star. Of course, medical procedures aren’t followed and everything goes sideways. Reviews are at a steallar 90% certified fresh on RT. Currently, booked at around 1,700 theaters, and possibly more, The Substance is eyeing a $3M start with potential for upside. The Substance was acquired for $10M-$12M and the P&A spend, mostly digital is under $10M. With MUBI looking to make their mark in the specialty space ala A24 and NEON, thus driving subs ultimately to their streaming app, they have to start somewhere. Remember A24’s first movie Bling Ring in 2013? It was platformed, opening to $214K at 5 theaters, ultimately finaling at $5.8M. With Moore out there heavy on the talk show circuit, interest is bubbling among older women.