‘Mufasa’ Bound To Steal MLK Weekend Away From ‘Wolf Man’ & ‘One Of Them Days’ – Box Office Update

FRIDAY PM: After everyone ran to the movies over the holidays, they’re doing something else this weekend with Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King looking to upset the MLK 4-day frame with an estimated $16M take in its fifth weekend. That’s easily the lowest post-Covid No. 1 haul for a movie and nothing for the industry to brag about.

Two newcomers, Sony’s One of Them Days at $13M over 4 days and Blumhouse/Universal’s Wolf Man at $12M, aren’t doing the biz any favors. Both are low-cost movies at $14M and $25M, respectively, before P&A spend. Hopefully, with its great exits and reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, One of Them Days finds an audience. The current $11.7M 3-day on last year’s Blumhouse January title Night Swim is bigger than Wolf Man‘s.

Social media analytics firm RelishMix shows that social media universe reach on Wolf Man at 136.5M is running close to 50% behind the average norm for a wide horror release. Julia Garner is the pic’s biggest social media star, with an audience of 1.5M on Instagram. RelishMix noticed that bad word-of-mouth: “Mixed negative-leaning chatter on Wolf Man finds some viewers taking umbrage with the look of the film, from the cinematography to the design of the titular creature. Comments include, ‘They’ve clearly gone for a more human-like werewolf design, which I get is not a lot of people’s preference,’ and, ‘A furless werewolf is not a werewolf in my books!’

One of Them Days‘ social media universe across TikTok, Facebook, X, YouTube and Instagram stands at 116.6M which is +2% versus comedy norms. Cast activation component on the R-rated movie is strong with SZA’s social network at 36M and Keke Palmer’s at 24.5M.

Reports RelishMix: “Positive-leaning convo on One of Them Days is strong from audiences gearing up for a fun comedic time at the movies. The cast, particularly Keke Palmer is enticing many towards the film, sharing, ‘This is already a must see. KEKE and Sza and Katt Williams lol yes,’ and, ‘Keke low-key one of the best comedic actresses out now.’ Audiences feel this is similar to other black-led comedies, with comments like, ‘This has Friday vibes all over it. Can’t wait to see it,’ and, ‘It’s giving Insecure vibes but as a movie.’”

With an anticipated 4-day of $5M in it fourth go-round, Focus Features’ Nosferatu is heading for a $90.2M cume, $6.6M shy of overtaking Downton Abbey as the label’s highest-grossing movie ever. As we told you Thursday, the Robert Eggers-directed movie is the second-biggest stateside for the Universal specialty label.

FRIDAY AM: Just bracing you for it, but it’s going to be a rather dull MLK weekend at the box office, that is unless Sony’s R-rated femme comedy One of Them Days surprises.

Post Covid, the No. 1 movie over MLK weekend has been able to do north of $33M over four-days; that is for either an opening title or holdover.

This weekend, Universal/Blumhouse’s Wolf Man, despite its low cost of $25M before P&A, is only expected to bring in $20M over 4-days; no M3GAN. Yesterday in previews that started at 2PM, the Leigh Whannell directed, written and EP’ed R-rated horror movie did $1.4M, which is a little more than what Lionsgate’s Den of Thieves ($1.35M) did last Thursday, and it’s a little lighter than the filmmaker’s pre-Covid The Invisible Man which did $1.65M in previews before a $28.2M opening. Wolf Man, which stars Julia Garner and Christopher Abbott, is booked at 3,354 theaters. Rotten Tomatoes reviews at 55% and audience score of 67% are lower than Invisible Man’s 91% certified fresh reviews and 88% score.

Sony’s SZA and Keke Palmer comedy, One of Them Days, has great reviews at 96% fresh and audience reactions of 94%. The upside is that it’s the first female Black R-rated comedy since 2017’s Girls Trip. But why isn’t it projected to open higher? The 3-day is projected at $7M-$9M, with the four-day aimed at double digits. Pic follows best friends and roommates Dreux (Keke Palmer) and Alyssa (SZA) who are about to have ‘One of Them Days.’ When they discover Alyssa’s boyfriend has blown their rent money, the duo finds themselves going to extremes in a comical race against the clock to avoid eviction and keep their friendship intact. Previews last night which started at 2PM did $1.3M at 2,402 locations. By comparison, Girls Trip did $1.7M in previews before an $11.7M Friday, $31M opening. Prior to its opening, Girls Trip was projected to be in the low-to-mid $20M-plus range. One of Them Days is produced by Girls Trip producer, James Lopez.

Tracking service Quorum says this morning in their note: “Wolf Man and One of Them Days arrive in theaters from opposite directions. Wolf Man has high awareness, high interest, and a solid unaided of 6% (the same as Nosferatu on its day of release). The downside is that reviews for Wolf Man have been lukewarm. One of Them Days has lower awareness and interest and has yet to reach 1% unaided awareness, but it’s getting glowing reviews. What does it mean? Expect Wolf Man to have the bigger opening, but if word-of-mouth is weak, it could open at the lower end of projections. Conversely, if One of Them Days gets good word-of-mouth, it could surprise to the upside.”

Lionsgate’s Tucker Tooley co-financed Den of Thieves 2: Pantera is looking to ease -45% to -50% in weekend 2 with $7.5M to $8.3M over the 3-day. The first 2018 movie had a hold of -43% in its second weekend. First week of Den of Thieves was $20.1M while part 2 here grossed $19.5M in its first week. Den of Thieves ended its run at $44.9M.

Previous Post Covid No. 1 titles over MLK weekend include Avatar the Way of Water ($39.8M, 2023), Scream ($33.8M, 2022), and last year’s Mean Girls ($33.6M).

Week’s top 5 is as follows:

1.) Den of Thieves 2 (LG) 3,008 theaters Thu $843K (-14% from Wed), Wk $19.5M/Wk 1

2.) Mufasa (Dis) 3,620 theaters, Thu $866K (-11%), Wk $18.7M, $194.2M/Wk 4

3.) Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (Par) 3,582 theaters, Thu $589K (-11%), Wk $14.3M, Total $207.9M/Wk 4

4.) Nosferatu (Foc) 3,082 theaters, Thu $659K (-15%), Wk $10M/Total $85.2M, Wk 3

5.) Moana 2 (Dis) 3,170 theaters, Thu $378K (-6%), Wk $8.3M, Total $436.7M/Wk 7