Saturday AM Update: Refresh for more analysis and chart Two major studios this weekend took a bold swing and decided to go after the challenged older female demo over Valentine’s Day weekend in a continued pandemic, and while the results were in line with projections, they wouldn’t be anything to brag about in a pre-pandemic marketplace. It’s also the hardest weekend for moviegoing with Super Bowl on Sunday.
Disney’s Covid-delayed release of Kenneth Branagh’s $90M adaptation of Agatha Christie’s Death on the Nile starring Gal Gadot is seeing a $5.1M Friday and an estimated $12.7M opening, while Universal’s $23M Jennifer Lopez-Owen Wilson romantic comedy Marry Me, which is also available on the studio’s sister streaming service Peacock on the premium tier, is landing in 3rd with $3M on Friday and a $8M opening at 3,642. Again, both are hoping for more love from the Valentine’s Day box office, but I believe we won’t know if older women are truly ready to come out to the movies again until it happens. It will take some sort of Sex and the City or Bridesmaids phenomenon to put us back there, I don’t think we’ll be able to see it coming, It will take sheer gut and will on behalf of a major studio. Many content creators continue to worry if the same types of movies they use to make are ripe for theatrical in a truly have-and-have not marketplace, or if such genres have completely been absorbed by streaming — a place where movies live forever.
Not from a P&L perspective, but from sheer pandemic box office optics, Death on the Nile‘s opening here isn’t that far below House of Gucci‘s 3-day start of $14.4M, just -13%, which says something about the number of adults who’ll brave the cinema now with a glitzy package like this. Branagh’s previous Christie ensemble Murder on the Orient Express did truly surprise, crushing its projections and soaring to a $28.6M opening and legging to a $102.8M by the end of the holidays. I will argue that Murder was casted up quite a bit with Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench, Daisy Ridley, Johnny Depp, Josh Gad, Leslie Odom Jr and Michelle Pfeiffer. There was a star for everyone in that movie whereas with Death on the Nile here, the marketing campaign seems to be anchored on a socially media quiet Gadot who was more active during Red Notice. The movie was developed and Gadot and Hammer attached in the fall of 2018 before Disney and Fox officially came together in the spring of 2019, but the movie went into production of October that year after the merger. Disney didn’t abandon the movie: They truly spent to promote it. iSpot shows that Disney was outspending last weekend’s movies, Moonfall and Jackass Forever, before they even opened with $12M in TV spots, ISpot shows Disney spent for spots during NFL (24%), Good Morning America (3%), 1,000 Lb Sisters (2%), Today (2%) and This Is Us (2%) and on networks such as CBS, Fox, ABC, NBC and Discovery. RelishMix shows a social media reach of 217.9M “at social norms for a campaign that began 18 months ago in August 2020 and wrestled with Covid re-dates and other headline news such as Armie Hammer.” Gadot has a social media reach of 95.1M, but she hasn’t been tub-thumping the film.
Death on the Nile gets a B CinemaScore, the same grade as Murder on the Orient Express. Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak audience exits show 77% positive, 57% definite recommend with 51% females and an overall audiences that 78% over 25, 47% over 35 and 28% over 45. Diversity demos were 56% Caucasian, 16% Hispanic and Latino, 11% Black, and 17% Asian and other. Imax, PLFs and some 70MM drove 35% of the business. Death on the Nile played best in the West and Southeast with all top 10 runs coming out of those sectors (Eight of the top ten being Imax).
With Peacock paid subscribers so low at 9M, it remains to be seen whether the service is truly siphoning moviegoers from Marry Me. I’ve heard anecdotally that subscriptions have spiked greatly from the Olympics being on a paid tier, and Marry Me is in a position to possibly be watched then. CinemaScore moviegoers didn’t turn their backs on it with a B+. PostTrak exits are similar to Death on the Nile at 78% positive, 63% recommend. Female draw here is at 69%, 79% over 25, 48% over 35, 26% over 45. Diversity demos were 44% Caucasian, 35% Latino and Hispanic, 10% Black and 11% Asian/other. The West and the Southwest had the majority of play with nine of the top ten theaters.
Unlike Hustlers, which was a welcomed genre departure for Lopez, Marry Me marks a return to the romantic comedies that have populated her resume, i.e. Shall We Dance, Maid in Manhattan, The Wedding Planner, etc. To Universal’s benefit, the movie was maid at a very low cost and isn’t in any financial peril, especially as they augment the way they account for a movie’s profitability moving forward with Peacock in the mix.
Even though a majority of movies which were delayed because of the pandemic won’t profit as audiences return inconsistently, some financiers argue to me that some movies were expensive even by pre-pandemic standards and should never have been greenlight even at their productions costs. The point being that every type of movie can be made, it just needs to be at a reasonable cost. It’s arguable that Death on the Nile is far more expensive than it should be, even by pre-pandemic models, but a movie like Marry Me at $23M is not. In regards to our dinging Lionsgate/Centropolis’ Moonfall last weekend (which wound up opening to $9.8M, not $10M, and is seeing a 72% drop in weekend 2 with $2.7M, steeper than -57% weather by Dean Devlin’s Geostorm), know that the movie was excruciatingly more pricey than pre-pandemic costs and audience wants at $140M (Universal, I heard even thumbed their noses at making the movie at a $200M price), but again, it was made for a pre-Covid overseas crowd. However, moving forward, everyone needs content.
Briarcliff Entertainment’s Liam Neeson action movie Blacklight saw $1.2M on Friday, $3.3M opening at 2,772 locations. Critics have had enough of the actor with a gun at 6%, while PostTrak were dismal at 58% and a 39% recommend. Guys at 64% attended with 83% over 25, 58% over 35, and 35% over 45. Diversity demos were 53% Caucasian, 14% Latino and Hispanic, 15% Black, and 18% Asian/other. Best markets were in the Midwest and the South with four of the top ten runs coming out of those areas.
MORE…chart coming