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This is the week that the Iran war is transforming.
The conflict appears to be going from an American and Israeli blitzkrieg to a long-term tit for tat. It’s going to a they-hit-us, we-hit-them-back, low level war.
And the prize over which America and Iran are fighting is the Strait of Hormuz, the 21 mile wide sea lane through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes. A chokepoint that can throttle the economy of the world.
Wednesday, July 8th, was a key day in this war’s metamorphosis. Tuesday July 7th Iran struck three ships trying to sail through the Strait of Hormuz. One ship’s engine room was hit and the ship caught fire. It was a Qatari tanker filled with 95,000 tons of liquid natural gas. If that gas leaks out as a mist and catches fire, it could result in a blast as big as tactical nuclear warhead.
For what sin have these unarmed ships been punished? Iran has a 200-mile-long bank on the north of the Strait of Hormuz. But the Southern bank of the strait belongs to Oman.
America is trying to set up a corridor on the Oman side. A corridor through which ships can pass freely, without being forced to pay the roughly million dollar fees per ship the Iranians seem about to impose.
Says Iran, according to the memo of understanding with America, control of the Strait of Hormuz belongs to them and to them alone. The Iranians argue that the Oman corridor backed by the Americans is illegal. They say it is “banditry” and “piracy.” We disagree.
So early today we retaliated against Iran’s attacks on the three tankers by hitting more than 80 targets on the Iran shore, targets picked to “degrade” Iran’s ability to enforce its claim to the entire Strait: Iranian air defense systems, command networks, coastal radar, anti-ship missile sites, and more than sixty Iranian Revolutionary Guard small boats.
The Iranians retaliated by hitting 85 targets on American military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. Including the destruction of a 35 million dollar MQ9 reaper drone. In total from the war’s start in February, Iranian drones and missiles have hit 15 us bases, and 228 “military assets.” And Iran has declared a new military doctrine. For every drone or missile launched at them, they will counter-attack with two.
President Trump punched back by saying for every weapon Iran hits us with, we will strike back with 20.
Today we are retaliating against Iran’s retaliation. And Iran is retaliating against ours. We have also resumed sanctions to cut Iran’s ability to sell its oil.
And President Trump, who was in Turkey at a NATO summit when all this was happening, changed his view of Iran. A few days ago he was saying sweet nothings about how wonderfully we were about to get along with the Iranians. They were, he said, “very rational,” “smart people,” and “nice to deal with,” But you’ve heard the words he used Wednesday. He proclaimed that “I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore, they’re scum… They’re sick people. They’re led by sick people. And they’re vicious, violent people. And if they had a nuclear weapon, they’d use it.”
As if to prove that claim right, many of those in the crowds of between 350,000 and 35 million who have been mourning the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei for the last six days are carrying placards saying “kill Trump.” And Iran’s Kayhan newspaper two days ago sported headlines declaring “Trump Must Not Stay Alive” and “We want Trump’s Head.”
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References
Kayhan (Tehran), “دست و پای بیهوده نزنید که بیشتر فرو خواهید رفت: تنگه هرمز، فقط با «ترتیبات ایرانی» باز میشود نه با تهدیدات آمریکایی” [Do Not Flail in Vain, For You Will Sink Further: The Strait of Hormuz Opens Only with Iranian Arrangements, Not with American Threats], July 9, 2026.
Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) News, Telegram post containing the official statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding U.S. Central Command violations of the June Memorandum of Understanding, July 7, 2026.
Kayhan (Tehran), Front-page commentary on Donald Trump and the NATO Ankara Summit, July 8, 2026.
“US Strikes, Hormuz Clashes Push Iran Deal to Brink,” Iran International, July 9, 2026, https://www.iranintl.com/en/202607099667.
“West Asia War Updates: U.S. Strikes Iran After Hormuz Tanker Attacks,” The Hindu, July 7, 2026, https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/west-asia-war-live-updates-july-7-2026-khamenei-funeral-ceremonies/article71191969.ece.
Sultanate of Oman, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Oman Works with International Maritime Organization to Provide Transit Corridor in the Strait of Hormuz,” June 24, 2026, https://www.fm.gov.om/en/49077/.
The Hindu. “West Asia War Updates: U.S. Strikes Iran After Hormuz Tanker Attacks.” July 7, 2026. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/west-asia-war-live-updates-july-7-2026-khamenei-funeral-ceremonies/article71191969.ece.
Iran International. “US Strikes, Hormuz Clashes Push Iran Deal to Brink.” July 9, 2026. https://www.iranintl.com/en/202607099667.
Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) News. Statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on U.S. Violations of the Maritime Agreement. Tehran: IRIB News Agency, July 7, 2026. Telegram.
Kayhan (Tehran). “دست و پای بیهوده نزنید که بیشتر فرو خواهید رفت: تنگه هرمز، فقط با «ترتیبات ایرانی» باز میشود نه با تهدیدات آمریکایی” [Do Not Flail in Vain, For You Will Sink Further: The Strait of Hormuz Opens Only with Iranian Arrangements, Not with American Threats]. July 9, 2026.
Kayhan (Tehran). Front-page commentary on Donald Trump and the NATO Ankara Summit. July 8, 2026.
U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM), “At the direction of the Commander in Chief, U.S. Central Command forces have started conducting additional strikes against Iran,” X (formerly Twitter), July 8, 2026, 6:56 p.m. IST, https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1810419266710.
U.S. Central Command, “CENTCOM Forces Impose Costs on Iran for Ceasefire Violations and Attacks on Commercial Shipping,” MacDill AFB, FL: CENTCOM Communications, July 8, 2026, Public Release, https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/403911/.
U.S. Central Command, “U.S. Central Command Completes Additional Round of Strikes Against Iranian Coastline Military Assets,” MacDill AFB, FL: CENTCOM Communications, July 8, 2026, Public Release, https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/404022/.
U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM), “CENTCOM forces hit approximately 80 Iranian military targets July 7, including more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats,” X (formerly Twitter), July 9, 2026, https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1810620199411.
U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM). Post regarding the execution of offensive strikes targeting air defense and coastal assets to protect the Strait of Hormuz. X (formerly Twitter). July 8, 2026, 6:56 p.m. IST. https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1810419266710.
U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM). Post detailing strike metrics including tactical degradation of over 60 IRGC small boats. X (formerly Twitter). July 9, 2026. https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1810620199411.