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United Airlines has warned that soaring fuel costs will hit fourth-quarter profit despite strong passenger demand and expectations for another period of record revenue.
The US carrier expects adjusted earnings of between $0.50 and $1.50 per share for the final three months of 2026, well below the $1.76 average forecast from analysts surveyed by LSEG.
At the midpoint, United’s guidance is approximately 43% below Wall Street expectations.
Fuel is the main reason for the shortfall.
United expects to pay an average of approximately $4.80 a gallon for jet fuel during the fourth quarter, around $0.45 above the level assumed by market forecasts.
The company estimates that difference alone represents approximately $1 per share of fourth-quarter earnings.
The warning comes despite strong underlying performance.
United generated record third-quarter operating revenue of $17.9 billion, an increase of 17.4% from a year earlier, while capacity increased by just 1.3%.
The airline carried a record 49.5 million passengers during the quarter.
Revenue from premium cabins increased 17%, basic economy revenue rose 16% and contracted business revenue increased 26%.
Higher fuel costs, however, absorbed much of the additional revenue.
United’s third-quarter fuel expense increased 62% from a year earlier to approximately $4.8 billion.
Adjusted pre-tax profit fell to $1.1 billion and its adjusted pre-tax margin narrowed to 6.2% from 8% a year earlier.
Adjusted earnings reached $2.54 per share, slightly below the $2.57 expected by analysts.
The pressure is expected to continue even as revenue accelerates.
United forecasts fourth-quarter operating revenue growth of more than 20% year on year, which would represent another company record.
For CEO Scott Kirby, the challenge is therefore protecting profitability when demand remains strong but one of the airline’s largest operating costs is rising substantially faster than capacity.
United has continued investing in its customer proposition through its United Next strategy.
Starlink Wi-Fi has now been installed on more than 640 aircraft and is available on around half of United flights, while the airline introduced its Airbus A321XLR into domestic service in September.
Kirby said United Next remains the right strategy and argued that its execution has put the airline in its strongest competitive position.
The numbers provide some support for that confidence.
United generated significantly more revenue during the third quarter without substantially increasing flying capacity, while business, premium and basic economy revenue all recorded double-digit growth.
The difficulty is converting that demand into stronger profitability when fuel costs are rising so rapidly.
United is not alone in facing that pressure.
Delta Air Lines recently cut its annual earnings forecast by nearly a quarter after projecting that its fuel bill would increase by approximately $6 billion from last year.
Across the US airline industry, fuel expenditure reached $42.9 billion during the first eight months of 2026, an increase of $13.2 billion despite slightly lower consumption.
For Kirby and his leadership team, the immediate strategic question is therefore how much of that increase can be absorbed through higher revenue and how much ultimately needs to be reflected in fares, capacity decisions or lower margins.
United enters the fourth quarter with strong demand and expects record revenue.
But its profit guidance demonstrates the limits of revenue growth when a major input cost rises rapidly.
The fourth quarter will provide an important test of whether United’s strategy can continue producing resilient returns if elevated fuel prices persist.